Monte Carlo Simulation Template
Give each assumption a worst/likely/best range and see P10–P90 outcomes across thousands of trials.
Monte Carlo Simulation Template is a free Excel workbook: 5 sheets, 5,025 live formulas and realistic sample data throughout, 51 KB as .xlsx.
The formulas are printed on this page, unedited, so you can check the method before downloading anything. Swap in your own numbers and the whole file recalculates — which is the part no chat window can hand you. Opens in Excel, Google Sheets, Numbers and LibreOffice; no add-in and no macro.
A look inside
This is a real slice of the Trials sheet from the actual file — not a screenshot, and not a mock-up. Cells shown in violet are live formulas, exactly as they arrive.
| # | Trial | Units | Price | Var cost | Fixed | Profit |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 1 | =IF(RAND()<(Model!$C$5-Model!$B$5)/(Model!$D… | =IF(RAND()<(Model!$C$6-Model!$B$6)/(Model!$D… | =IF(RAND()<(Model!$C$7-Model!$B$7)/(Model!$D… | =IF(RAND()<(Model!$C$8-Model!$B$8)/(Model!$D… | =B2*(C2-D2)-E2 |
| 3 | 2 | =IF(RAND()<(Model!$C$5-Model!$B$5)/(Model!$D… | =IF(RAND()<(Model!$C$6-Model!$B$6)/(Model!$D… | =IF(RAND()<(Model!$C$7-Model!$B$7)/(Model!$D… | =IF(RAND()<(Model!$C$8-Model!$B$8)/(Model!$D… | =B3*(C3-D3)-E3 |
| 4 | 3 | =IF(RAND()<(Model!$C$5-Model!$B$5)/(Model!$D… | =IF(RAND()<(Model!$C$6-Model!$B$6)/(Model!$D… | =IF(RAND()<(Model!$C$7-Model!$B$7)/(Model!$D… | =IF(RAND()<(Model!$C$8-Model!$B$8)/(Model!$D… | =B4*(C4-D4)-E4 |
| 5 | 4 | =IF(RAND()<(Model!$C$5-Model!$B$5)/(Model!$D… | =IF(RAND()<(Model!$C$6-Model!$B$6)/(Model!$D… | =IF(RAND()<(Model!$C$7-Model!$B$7)/(Model!$D… | =IF(RAND()<(Model!$C$8-Model!$B$8)/(Model!$D… | =B5*(C5-D5)-E5 |
| 6 | 5 | =IF(RAND()<(Model!$C$5-Model!$B$5)/(Model!$D… | =IF(RAND()<(Model!$C$6-Model!$B$6)/(Model!$D… | =IF(RAND()<(Model!$C$7-Model!$B$7)/(Model!$D… | =IF(RAND()<(Model!$C$8-Model!$B$8)/(Model!$D… | =B6*(C6-D6)-E6 |
| 7 | 6 | =IF(RAND()<(Model!$C$5-Model!$B$5)/(Model!$D… | =IF(RAND()<(Model!$C$6-Model!$B$6)/(Model!$D… | =IF(RAND()<(Model!$C$7-Model!$B$7)/(Model!$D… | =IF(RAND()<(Model!$C$8-Model!$B$8)/(Model!$D… | =B7*(C7-D7)-E7 |
| 8 | 7 | =IF(RAND()<(Model!$C$5-Model!$B$5)/(Model!$D… | =IF(RAND()<(Model!$C$6-Model!$B$6)/(Model!$D… | =IF(RAND()<(Model!$C$7-Model!$B$7)/(Model!$D… | =IF(RAND()<(Model!$C$8-Model!$B$8)/(Model!$D… | =B8*(C8-D8)-E8 |
| 9 | 8 | =IF(RAND()<(Model!$C$5-Model!$B$5)/(Model!$D… | =IF(RAND()<(Model!$C$6-Model!$B$6)/(Model!$D… | =IF(RAND()<(Model!$C$7-Model!$B$7)/(Model!$D… | =IF(RAND()<(Model!$C$8-Model!$B$8)/(Model!$D… | =B9*(C9-D9)-E9 |
What’s in the file
What it explains
- Why a distribution beats best, base and worst
- The triangular distribution, and why it is used here
- Read P10, not the mean
Download it
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