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Monte Carlo Simulation Template

Stop planning off a single guess. Give each assumption a worst / likely / best range and run thousands of trials to see the full spread of outcomes — with P10, P50 and P90 so you can commit to a number you can defend.

Use this template free →
Opens in your browser with sample data · export to Excel any time · your data stays yours

Prefer the spreadsheet? Monte Carlo Cash Runway · Monte Carlo Simulation Template — free with an account, 3 free downloads.

See inside before you download: Monte Carlo Cash Runway · Monte Carlo Simulation Template

monte-carlo-simulation · 10,000 trialsSimulated
P10 · downside
£44,795
P50 · median
£108,167
P90 · upside
£177,844
P( ≥ £200k )
4%
-£52,151£126,940£306,031

What's inside this template

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Range-based assumptionsWorst / likely / best for each driver, sampled as a triangular distribution.
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P10 · P50 · P90The downside, median and upside so you plan against a range, not a point.
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Probability of targetSee the exact odds of clearing any number you set.
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Outcome distributionA histogram of every simulated result, median highlighted.
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Thousands of trialsRuns in your browser — no Excel add-in or VBA.
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Export the resultDownload the summary or share a live link.

How it works

Set your ranges

Give each assumption a worst, likely and best value.

Run the simulation

Thousands of trials compute the full distribution instantly.

Read the odds

P10/P50/P90 and the probability of hitting your target — commit with confidence.

Related templates

12-month cash-flow forecastScenario inflows and outflows.Sensitivity / what-ifFlex inputs and watch the output move.SaaS P&L statementGross to net with margins.

Common questions

What does a Monte Carlo simulation actually tell me?

It replaces a single guessed number with a range, runs thousands of trials, and shows the distribution of outcomes — so instead of 'revenue will be £2m' you get 'there's an 80% chance it lands between £1.6m and £2.5m'.

What do P10, P50 and P90 mean?

They're percentiles of the simulated outcomes. P10 is the pessimistic case (only 10% of trials came in below it), P50 is the median, and P90 is the optimistic case. Planning to P50 and stress-testing against P10 is the usual approach.

How many trials do I need?

A few thousand is plenty for a business model — the distribution stabilises quickly. More trials mainly narrow the noise on the extreme tails, which are the least reliable part of the estimate anyway.

Model the full range of outcomes

Give your assumptions a range and see P10–P90 in seconds — no add-ins.

Use this template free →
No card required · works in your browser · export any time