Driver Tree Rolling Forecast
Revenue decomposed into traffic, conversion, order value and repeat rate, each forecast separately — plus what compounding optimism does to the total.
Driver Tree Rolling Forecast is a free Excel workbook: 5 sheets, 125 live formulas and realistic sample data throughout, 15 KB as .xlsx.
The formulas are printed on this page, unedited, so you can check the method before downloading anything. Swap in your own numbers and the whole file recalculates — which is the part no chat window can hand you. Opens in Excel, Google Sheets, Numbers and LibreOffice; no add-in and no macro.
A look inside
This is a real slice of the Forecast sheet from the actual file — not a screenshot, and not a mock-up. Cells shown in violet are live formulas, exactly as they arrive.
| # | Line | M1 | M2 | M3 | M4 | M5 | M6 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Sessions (seasonalised) | =Drivers!$B$2*(1+Drivers!$C$2)^1*B5 | =Drivers!$B$2*(1+Drivers!$C$2)^2*C5 | =Drivers!$B$2*(1+Drivers!$C$2)^3*D5 | =Drivers!$B$2*(1+Drivers!$C$2)^4*E5 | =Drivers!$B$2*(1+Drivers!$C$2)^5*F5 | =Drivers!$B$2*(1+Drivers!$C$2)^6*G5 |
| 3 | Conversion rate | =Drivers!$B$3*(1+Drivers!$C$3)^1 | =Drivers!$B$3*(1+Drivers!$C$3)^2 | =Drivers!$B$3*(1+Drivers!$C$3)^3 | =Drivers!$B$3*(1+Drivers!$C$3)^4 | =Drivers!$B$3*(1+Drivers!$C$3)^5 | =Drivers!$B$3*(1+Drivers!$C$3)^6 |
| 4 | Average order value | =Drivers!$B$4*(1+Drivers!$C$4)^1 | =Drivers!$B$4*(1+Drivers!$C$4)^2 | =Drivers!$B$4*(1+Drivers!$C$4)^3 | =Drivers!$B$4*(1+Drivers!$C$4)^4 | =Drivers!$B$4*(1+Drivers!$C$4)^5 | =Drivers!$B$4*(1+Drivers!$C$4)^6 |
| 5 | Repeat purchase uplift | =Drivers!B$9 | =Drivers!C$9 | =Drivers!D$9 | =Drivers!E$9 | =Drivers!F$9 | =Drivers!G$9 |
| 6 | Repeat purchase uplift | =Drivers!$B$5*(1+Drivers!$C$5)^1 | =Drivers!$B$5*(1+Drivers!$C$5)^2 | =Drivers!$B$5*(1+Drivers!$C$5)^3 | =Drivers!$B$5*(1+Drivers!$C$5)^4 | =Drivers!$B$5*(1+Drivers!$C$5)^5 | =Drivers!$B$5*(1+Drivers!$C$5)^6 |
| 7 | Orders | =B2*B3*(1+B6) | =C2*C3*(1+C6) | =D2*D3*(1+D6) | =E2*E3*(1+E6) | =F2*F3*(1+F6) | =G2*G3*(1+G6) |
| 8 | Revenue | =B7*B4 | =C7*C4 | =D7*D4 | =E7*E4 | =F7*F4 | =G7*G4 |
What’s in the file
What it explains
- Why decompose at all
- Multiplicative, so the errors compound
- Seasonality belongs in an index, not in the growth rate
Download it
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Related templates
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<a href="https://www.datahubpro.co.uk/excel-templates/driver-tree-forecast">Driver Tree Rolling Forecast</a> — free Excel template from DataHub Pro
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